Thursday, July 6, 2017

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - July 2, 2017

 Retail FX Fights Q2-End Reflationary Move; Nasdaq 100 Bulls Least Optimistic Since Trump Election

Large speculators (non-commercials) in Japanese yen futures and Canadian dollar futures made the most significant moves in the FX market, according to the latest CFTC IMM report through last Tuesday (June 27th).  Quarter-end squaring and comments by central bank's Draghi & Carney highlighted a reflationary trade that triggered a sell-off in global bond markets.  The Japanese yen had a huge jump in gross (speculative) shorts and euro bulls re-emerged to highlight last week's blip and continued ascendacy into (net) long territory. Retail FX traders, however, decisively fought strength versus the greenback and weakness in gold, attemping to pick bottoms in both going into the end of the 1st half and 2nd quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, both price-action and sentiment for Crude oil have seemingly bottomed-out, sparking the Loonie to continue its recent short-covering move. Both, the latest reversal n price-action and sentiment in the (US) 30-year futures suggests a potential shift, while speculators in Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) continued to show less optimism, highlighting the lowest gross & net long position since the Trump election.

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Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - August 20, 2017

According to the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report (as of August 15th), the most significant move in the FX futures positioning w...