Sunday, July 30, 2017

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - July 30, 2017


The US dollar's woes continued, falling across-the-board vs the majors despite an overall improvement in  sentiment, according to the latest COT report (as of July 25th). Despite recent persistent weakness in the greenback, large (non-commercial) speculators have continue to pile into the USD/JPY. The percentage of long (futures) positions of Japanese yen speculators dipped for the 6th straight week, bringing the net percentage to 16%, the lowest level in over 2 years.  The number of gross short positions (vs the yen), however, fell from a record high, allowing for the net (position total) to finally increase.

According to retail trader data provided by Oanda Corporation, the retail population continues to fade yen strength, a promising sign for dollar bears. While resistance at 114.36 (USD/JPY) continues to highlight the top of a triangle pattern or potentially, worse a (lower) double top, the USD/JPY should test 110.00 then possibly 108.00 if risk aversion re-emerges.

Its been a good run for euro bulls as both the currency and sentiment have rallied since early June. That said, the net long tally for speculators actually dropped slightly for the week, despite the EUR/USD's rise to fresh 18-month highs. The gross long position nudged lower off last week's record high, and the net percentage (65% long) is still below the June high of 66%, suggesting a potential ceiling may be developing in euro optimism.

That said, momentum in both price-action and in sentiment is clearly on the euro's side as retail traders remain unwilling to commit to contribute to the euro's recent rise. As such, continued broad dollar weakness could induce a move towards the 1.2140 region (EUR/USD) once overbought technical readings have unwound a bit.

Speculative sentiment for the British pound fell back this week, despite its recent push towards net (positions) parity. Gross long contract's gain were far outpaced by the pick-up in gross shorts, allowing for the net long percentage to fall back to 40%.

The Pound, however, finally made headway last week on the recent breach of resistance at 1.30 (GBP/USD). This may have to do with retail traders (according to recent data provided by Oanda Corporation), who seemingly sold into last week's Sterling's rise. Moreover, while the 20-day moving average continues to support price-action and broad dollar weakness persists, the GBP/USD should test the key 1.3285-1.3500 region.

The Aussie has risen nearly 10% on a trade-weighted basis and has steadily improved in sentiment vs the greenback over the past few weeks. Speculators continue to grow net longs, but the large increase in gross shorts reduced the net long percentage to 77% despite the net total increasing by 5K.

With large speculator's at already elevated (bullish sentiment) levels and the retail traders (Oanda) seemingly on-board with the AUD/USD's rise, its no wonder there has been a struggle at the psychological 80 cent threshold. That said, while price-action remains above .7835 (AUD/USD), look for a test of the mid-.81 region.

Canadian dollar futures continued their recent trend higher in both price and sentiment, with net (speculative) longs surging in both in net contracts and percentage for the 10th straight week. The Loonie inched further below the key 1.25 region (USD/CAD), reaching a fresh 2-year low. Retail traders (according to recent data provided by Oanda Corporation) continue to be extremely pessimistic, with only 25% of outstanding contracts long.

 Although, there is plenty of room to go for speculative bulls, the recent trend has been one-sided and notably, retail traders are at extremes with regards to their pessimism towards the Canadian dollar. This suggest that the USD/CAD could encounter some consolidation until overstretched technicals unwind.  The good news, however, is that the speculative trend remains intact and the Loonie stands to gain while broad dollar weakness continues.
 
Gold's price-action and (negative) sentiment both bottomed-out in early July. Speculative positioning has trended higher as both gross long & short positions have stalled negative trends. According to recent Oanda Corporation data, retail traders have continued to sell into the recent rally in gold. This and a likely monthly chart breakout of a 6-year bear trendline, suggests that Gold has will likely re-test the key 1300 region before encountering overbought resistance. Fortunately, for Gold bulls, US dollar deterioration (in both sentiment & price-action) should continue to provide an eventual tailwind for Gold futures back towards the 2016 highs in the mid-1300 area.

Crude oil's continued short-covering by speculators has managed to prop-up price-action back towards 50. According to the latest COT data, gross long positions edged higher while gross shorts dropped nearly 20K, lifting the net percentage of longs to 74%. Similar to Gold futures, Crude oil is also probing key trendline resistance. After advancing another 3% plus last week, oil futures are bumping up against a trendline that has capped a series of highs since February. If cleanly broken, Crude's price should re-test the 52 to 54 region in the near-term.

E-mini S&P 500 futures reached another fresh all-time high this week as large speculator's gross longs surged once again. Gross shorts, however, inched up, but continue to hover near the low-end of the year. While the short-covering theme has seemingly stalled as of late, the pace of the pick-up in gross long positions is a healthy indication and should continue to buoy price-action towards 2500 once overbought conditions have unwound.

Nasdaq 100 futures reached another fresh all-time high last week as speculators added to (gross) long positions and covered more (gross) short positions. This has allowed the net long percentage to continue to improve, reaching 65% this week. That said, while sentiment has broadly improved, the technical picture looks a bit cloudy at the moment. Thursday's pullback highlights the overbought condition of not only the Nasdaq 100, but technology stocks as a whole. The reaction of the Nasdaq 100 after reaching marginal new highs suggests that price-action may have exhausted and could be entering a consolidative range or perhaps a correction of some sorts.

Speculators kept buying US 10-year futures according to last week's COT report. Gross long positions increased by roughly the same as gross shorts, however, allowing for the net long percentage to remain at a steady 60%. While this highlights a range in bullish sentiment, the technical base that has formed in the US 10-year at 124.80, could merit a move back towards the mid-June peak in the mid-127 region once 126.37 is cleanly taken-out to the topside.

 US 30-year futures speculators once again did not make signicant moves in sentiment as the net (long) percentage nudged up to 59% from 58% the prior week. Gross longs continued to hover near their highest level since the Financial Crisis in 2008, while gross shorts dipped slightly. The indecisive moves by speculators coupled with range-bound price-action continue to contribute to an unclear outlook which could see more rangebound trade for the rest of the summer.

Complete report with charts















                                                 

Monday, July 24, 2017

Critical Juncture For Equity Markets

Yes, it's the middle of the summer, and yes, volatility is extremely low! And, no, I'm not calling for a top here in stocks. But, what I am concerned is what the key averages (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite) are doing from a pure technical perspective.

Looking back at charts this past spring, while the Nasdaq Composite and technology stocks as a whole, were soaring to fresh all-time high after fresh all-time high. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index, however, traded within their respective ranges until late May.

It was nearly two months of consolidation until all three (indices) begun to harmoniously hit record high prices. In other words, they (the Dow and S&P 500) lagged while the Nasdaq assumed leadership. Since then, however, it has been the Dow and S&P that have reaching a series of fresh record highs, while the Nasdaq has lagged behind, consolidating gains for roughly a month. That was until last week, that the Nasdaq broke-out  to record highs only. The point is, that leadership has shifted from the tech-heavy Nasdaq to the more-balanced, Dow and S&P 500.

This may be another just throw caution in the wind moment, however, especially since the market universally has gone straight up since the 4th of July. But,there are two developments recently that merit some concern for stocks.

First, is the weak dollar trade, which has persisted all year, but is now finally peculating into strength in the Japanese yen and the price of Gold. Over the past week, both have rallied quite significantly, which is typically a hint of risk aversion, normally a bad sign for stock markets around the world. Therefore, if the price of gold were to ascend quickly towards the important 1300 handle, and the USD/JPY were to break key psychological support at the 110, equity indices would likely sell-off.

The second development, is Crude oil's price reaction late last week. Typically, dollar weakness promotes high commodity prices, but in this case, late last week oil plummeted as the Dollar Index closed the week at fresh 52-week lows . To be fair, Crude oil, is trading firmly within a range, and is seemingly stable to start the week. That said, if Crude oil prices were to drop significantly this week, technical factors could dent sentiment in equity markets.

All in all, I am still maintaining my medium-term bullish outlook on equities and believe corrective pullbacks will continue to be shallow and rotational in nature. That said, it does worry me that leadership amongst stocks may be changing and that bull momentum may be slowing down. Most importantly, if stock market indices fail to make headway at this very juncture, this could signal a false-break scenario, a technical set-up that is often proceeded by a quick, but strong reversal lower.

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - July 23, 2017




US dollar sentiment declined vs all the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen, according to the latest CFTC IMM report (as of July 18th) . Once again, bearish bets by (non-commercial) Yen speculators thrusted higher for the 5th straight week, bringing the net contracts total to -126K and the percentage of long positions (19%) down to the lowest level in 2 years.  This was spurred mostly by the number of gross short positions (vs the yen), which too reached a record high.

The Yen, however, has begun to rally (or the USD/JPY has begun to decline), as broad dollar weakness has finally materialized for the Yen and even gold. According to the latest retail trader data (provided by Oanda Corporation), the retail population has begun to show signs of fading Yen strength once again.

This is a promising sign for dollar bears because it suggests that large (non-commercial) traders have likely started reducing their record breaking short positions, due to the highly inverse correlation with the retail population. Moreover, while key resistance at 114.36 (USD/JPY) continues to highlight an ascending triangle pattern or potentially, worse a (lower) double top, the USD/JPY should continue heading towards 110.00 then possibly 108.00.

It was a good week for euro bulls, as the net long tally continued higher to 91K, mirroring the EUR/USD's rise to fresh 2-year highs. While the gross long position total stands at a record high, the net percentage (65% long) is still below the June high of 66%, but the trend that speculators have set clearly has momentum on its side. Broad dollar weakness could induce a breakout of the 1.17 region (EUR/USD) that would expose 1.20 and beyond once overbought technical readings have been alleviated.

Speculative sentiment for the British pound continued to make a push towards net (positions) parity. Gross long contracts gained 4K to up the net long percentage to 43%. The Pound, however, struggled to make headway last week on the recent breach of resistance at 1.30 (GBP/USD). This may have to do with retail traders (Oanda Corporation), which have seemingly bought-in to the Sterling's recent rise. That said, if the 20-day moving average continues to support and broad dollar weakness persist, the GBP/USD should test the key 1.32 region.

The Aussie has been the darling of the major currencies for 2017, rising nearly 10% on a trade-weighted basis. Speculators continue to grow net longs, taking the net long percentage to a red-hot 80%. That said, with large speculator's at already elevated (bullish sentiment) levels and the retail trading population have seemingly capitulated (in regards to Aussie pessimism), the AUD/USD may encounter some struggle at current levels or potentially at the psychological 80 cent threshold.

 Canadian dollar futures have continued to trend higher in both price and sentiment, with net (speculative) longs surging in both in net contracts and percentage for the 9th straight week. Speculative sentiment has finally broke parity (in terms of gross longs vs shorts) before the Loonie inched further towards key 1.25 region (USD/CAD). Retail traders, however, continue to be extremely pessimistic, with only 29% of outstanding contracts long.

Although, there is plenty of room to go for speculative bulls, the recent trend has been one-sided and notably, retail traders are close to exhausting their pessimism towards the Canadian dollar. This suggest that the USD/CAD could encounter some consolidation either here or once it reaches the 2016 low until overstretched technicals work themselves out.  The good news is that the speculative trend remains intact and the Loonie stands to gain while broad dollar weakness persists.

Gold's price-action and (negative) sentiment has seemingly bottomed-out. With speculative positioning essentially unchanged (in the latest CFTC IMM report), both gross long & short positions have stalled negative trends against Gold futures. According to recent Oanda Corporation data, retail traders have curbed their overly bullish positions (for gold) and have started to sell into the recent rally. This suggests that Gold has most likely formed a base ahead of 1200 and will likely re-test the 1270 region before encountering overbought resistance. Fortunately, for Gold bulls, US dollar deterioration (in both sentiment & price-action) should provide a tailwind back towards the key 1300 area.

Crude oil's continued reduction in gross shorts by speculators has managed to stabilize price-action. This week, however, saw a huge jump by gross long positions, which lifted the net percentage of longs to 72%. That was early in the week, however, as price-action fell over 1% into the weekend. More importantly, this occurred while the US dollar simultaneously fell, an ominous sign for crude bulls.

The in-ability of Crude oil to clear the early July peak (just above 47) last week could signal a key one-month double top, if bulls do not cease immediate control early  this week.  If Friday's decline turns out to be a one-off or a short-term selling exhaustion ahead of a weekend type set-up, then Crude oil futures could easily recover back towards 50 in the near-term.

E-mini S&P 500 futures reached another fresh all-time high this week as large speculator's gross longs surged once again. Gross shorts, however, inched up, but continue to hover near the low-end of the year. While the short-covering theme has seemingly stalled as of late, the pace of the pick-up in gross long positions is a healthy indication and should continue to buoy price-action towards 2500.

Nasdaq 100 futures welcomed back the speculative bulls by reaching a fresh all-time high. Despite this gross short positions recouped most of last week's reduction to hover near the largest gross short position in over 7 years. That said, gross longs have seemingly bottomed-out, which has allowed the net long percentage to bottom-out as well. As the earnings season moves into high gear this week, the reaction of the Nasdaq 100 at current (price) levels is critical in determining whether this recent move to fresh highs is sustainable or not.

Speculators returned to buying US 10-year futures last week, as gross long positions increased by 30K. This lifted the net long percentage to 60%, which highlights a steady range in bullish sentiment. More importantly, however, it highlights a technical base in the US 10-year at 124.80, which could merit a move back towards the mid-June peak in the mid-127 region.

US 30-year futures speculators did not make signicant moves in sentiment as the net (long) percentage held steady at 58%. Gross longs continued to hover near their highest level since the Financial Crisis in 2008, but have offset largely by the steady increase in gross shorts. The indecisive moves by speculators coupled with range-bound price-action continue to contribute to an unclear outlook which could see more range-bound trade for the rest of the summer.




















Sunday, July 16, 2017

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - July 16, 2017

Dollar Sentiment Continues To Deteriorate As The British Pound Breaks Key 1.30 Resistance

●  Large speculators (non-commercials) in Japanese yen futures increase bearish bets for 4th straight week, reaching a new 2-year high.      
●  Euro specs reach all-time net long position vs the US dollar.                                         
●  Canadian dollar makes most significant (bullish) move in sentiment once again as net positioning eyes parity.                                          
●  Crude oil remains volatile, but stabilizes on back of continued gross short reduction.           
●  E-mini S&P 500 futures reaches all-time high as Nasdaq 100 futures nears record highs.                ●  US 10-year futures speculators hesitate ahead of Yellen, then slightly reverse bearish shift.

Yen bearishness (by large speculators) reached a new 2-year high according to the latest CFTC IMM report (as of July 11th).  Bearish bets by (non-commercial) speculators thrusted higher for the 4th straight week, bringing the net contracts total to -112K and the percentage of long positions down to the nearest  (a net)  21% . The number of gross short positions (vs the yen) nearly reached a record high.

This played out while the USD/JPY briefly breached key resistance on Tuesday before reversing lower and subsequently finishing the week down over 1 percent. According to the latest retail trader data (provided by Oanda Corp.), the retail population had been consistently increasing bullish bets (in favor of the Yen) as the Japanese currency declined over the last five weeks. That said, it has appeared that the latest reversal (in price-action) may have shifted retail traders, as (retail) positioning began to turn negative towards the Yen by the end of the week.

While last week's (USD/JPY) rejection at key resistance at 114.36 (May 10th high) highlights a potential (daily chart) ascending triangle pattern or worse a (lower) double top, it is more likely that large speculator's have temporarily exhausted their bearish stance and are merely taking a breather before resuming more downside pressure. If the USD/JPY continues south of 112.34 (38.2% retracement of previous up-trend), however, and the retail population continues to sell Yen, then it appears that large speculators may have substantially exhausted their Yen bearishness.

Speculative short reduction (gross & net) in the Euro remains an on-going theme as the net long tally (83K) broke the June high (79k). Bullish sentiment which had primarily been driven via short-covering now seems to be driven by outright buying. While this is typically a bullish development, the gross long position total has just surpassed mid-April's record high, which could possibly signal exhaustion for Euro bulls. That said, with the British pound breaking out vs the US dollar, and most sentiment metrics trending in favor of further for the EUR/USD, a weekly breakout above the mid-1.14 region would quickly expose the key 1.17 are then potentially 1.20 and above.

Speculative sentiment for the British pound was unchanged on a net percentage basis, but continued to make a push towards net (positions) parity. Gross long contracts gave back most of what had been gained the prior week, which may explain the Pound's 0.68% decline (in the 7/3 to 7/11 period). Subsequent price-action in Sterling, highlights a significant breach of resistance at 1.30 (GBP/USD) as retail traders (Oanda Corp) continue to remain rather skeptical. This continues to bode well for dollar bears while the retail population remains reluctant to follow recent strength in the Pound. Next stop for the GBP/USD could be the mid-1.32 region to the upper-1.34 area, which at that point would exhaust retail sentiment and temporarily stall price-action.

Aussie speculators continue to grow net longs, taking the net long percentage to 75%. This time, however, it was driven primarily in a large drop in gross shorts. It was the first week in a month that saw long positions decline, which may partly explain why the AUD/USD dropped by 0.30% (in the 7/3 to 7/11 period). Speculative bulls look to have continued their run, however, as the Aussie spiked 2.55% in subsequent trade for the week. That said, with large speculator's at already elevated bullish sentiment levels and retail trading potentially have capitulated (in regards to Aussie pessimism), the AUD/USD may encounter some struggle at key resistance at .7835 (April 2016 peak).

Canadian dollar futures have continued to trend higher in both price and sentiment, with net (speculative) longs surging in both in net contracts and percentage for the 8th straight week. Speculative sentiment was nearly in parity (in terms of gross longs vs shorts) before the Loonie surged another 2%. Retail traders, however, continue to be extremely pessimistic, with only 29% of outstanding contracts long. Although, there is plenty of room to go for speculative bulls, there are signs that retail traders are getting close in exhausting their pessimism. This suggest that the USD/CAD is expected to reach the 2016 low just below 1.25, some  consolidation in price-action is anticipated.

Gold bottomed in early part of last week, just before the completion of the latest CFTC IMM report. In spite of bullish sentiment among large speculators reaching fresh cycle lows, Gold futures managed to gain an additional 1% into the weekend. This suggest Gold's technicals and sentiment indicators were oversold and were due for a bounce. Although, Gold futures may have broken the initial downtrend (of the latest bout of weakness), the retail population (according to recent Oanda Corp data) is overly bullish (for gold) and is testing levels not seen since late last year. This suggests that Gold is most likely in the process of forming a base and will have to see speculative demand pick-up and retail traders to start selling for Gold to continue rise,  both of which have not been seen yet. Fortunately, for Gold bulls, US dollar deterioration (in both sentiment & price-action) should provide a tailwind of sorts.

Crude oil price-action was decisively volatile once again. Crude futures dipped over 4% in the 7/3 to 7/11 time frame (covered in the latest CFTC IMM report), then rallied over 3% thereafter. It seems that the continued reduction in gross shorts by speculators is partly to blame for Crude's stabilization. While  Crude oil speculators remain vulnerable to a further gross long reduction with the net percentage (of large speculators) at rather lofty levels (70%), if the US dollar continues to decline and speculative short-covering remains robust, Crude oil futures could recover back towards 50.

E-mini S&P 500 futures reached a fresh all-time high this week as large speculator's gross shorts continued to hover near the low-end of the year. While the short-covering theme stalled this week, it was the jump in gross longs that likely fueled the latest run-up into Friday. This is viewed as a healthy indication for equity bulls and should be reflected in the next CFTC IMM report and price-action going forward.

Nasdaq 100 futures walked back from last week's largest gross short position in over 7 years. Despite the dramatic drop in speculative gross longs, price-action in the Nasdaq has managed to recover back towards all-time highs. The nearly 2% move in the latter part of the week hint that gross longs have potentially bottomed and gross shorts have topped-out, both of which should fuel the Nasdaq to all-time highs. From there, however, the technical reaction will be critical in determining future direction for all stocks as the earnings season gets going.

Despite remaining (net) long, speculators in US 10-year futures have correctly played the latest bearish shift in price-action, by re-upping gross short positions and reducing gross longs over the past few weeks as well as the 7/3 to 7/11 (CFTC IMM report) time frame. That said, the positioning adjustments this week offset each other and the net long percentage remained the same at 59% (net long). This hesitation in sentiment ahead of last week's testimony to the government by Fed chair Janet Yellen was justified by her dovish remarks and highlights a potential base in the US 10-year in the 124.80 region. While, the technical and sentiment outlooks remain murky, if tens fail to recover any further than the 126 region,  then the aforementioned key 124.80 level could quickly be re-tested.

US 30-year futures speculators reduced their net long positions by 16K contracts, dropping the net (long) percentage to 58% from 61%. Gross longs continued to ascend to their highest level since the Financial Crisis in 2008, but were offset largely by a large increase in gross shorts. While speculators have largely been caught on the wrong side of the trade, the latest price-action in US 30-year futures have caused the technical outlook to be as murky as the outlook based on sentiment.

The complete 7.16.17 report with charts













Sunday, July 9, 2017

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - July 9, 2017

Crude Oil Vulnerable To Further Downside; Loonie & Pound Make Significant Moves In Sentiment

●  Large speculators (non-commercials) in Japanese yen futures increase bearish bets for 3rd straight week, according to the latest CFTC IMM report through last Monday (July 3rd).  
●  Euro short reduction remains the theme, while British pound specs grow less pessimistic.       
● Canadian dollar makes most significant (bullish) move in sentiment; Aussie (speculative) longs continue to ascend.
 ● Crude oil remains vulnerable to further downside; Gold pessimism grows as (non-commercial) net longs fall to lowest level since 2015.   
 ●  Nasdaq 100 futures (speculators) build largest (gross ) short position in over 7 years; E-mini S&P speculators cover gross shorts to lowest level since January. 
 ● US 30-year futures speculators caught covering shorts into weakness, while US 10-year futures speculators smartly re-up gross short positions.       

JY: Bearish bets by non-commercial speculators increased for the 3rd straight week, bringing the net (contracts) to -75K and the percentage of long positions to 27%. Retail traders, however, have continued to fight the latest bout of Yen weakness, taking the net percentage of longs to 49%. Meanwhile, the price of Yen futures fell 0.92% into July 3rd (holiday schedule) and fell an additional 0.46% into the weekend (July 7th). This suggests speculative bears remain in control and are expected to re-test (USD/JPY) key resistance at 104.36 (5/10/17 high).

EC/BP: Euro futures (speculative) short reduction (gross & net) remains the on-going theme as the net long tally headed further back towards the June high (79k). Interestingly, commercial traders participated in the EUR's recent rebound, raising gross short positions by 8K. British pound (speculative) sentiment made a  significant push towards net (positions) parity, as gross long contracts bumped up by roughly 9K.  Recent price-action in Sterling, highlights potential significant resistance at 1.30 (GBP/USD). Meanwhile, retail traders in both the euro and pound remain rather skeptical, merely consolidating recent skepticism. This bodes well for dollar bears as long as retail traders remain reluctant to follow recent strength in the euro and pound.

AD/CD: Canadian dollar futures have continued to make solid strides in both price and sentiment, with net (speculative) longs rising in both in net contracts and percentage for the 7th straight week. That said, the Loonie remains the most (net) short major currency besides the Japanese yen. Retail traders, however, continue to be extremely pessimistic, with only 27% of outstanding contracts long. Although, there is plenty of room to go for speculative bulls, there are minor signs that retail traders have potentially exhausted their pessimism, which could suggest some minor consolidation in price-action. Meanwhile, Aussie speculators continue to grow gross longs, taking the net long percentage to 70%. While, AUD speculative bulls look poised to continue their run, retail trading behavior looks to have bottomed (in terms of Aussie pessimism), which could suggest Australian dollar futures strength could be stalling.

GC/CL:Crude oil price-action was decisively volatile in both time frames, before and after quarter-end and the start to the 2nd half of 2017. After rallying into last Monday (July 3rd) 6.53%, bulls gave back roughly two-thirds of those gains rather quickly, to hint of at least a re-test of key support at 42 and perhaps lower. This leaves Crude oil speculators vulnerable to further gross long reduction with the net percentage (of large speculators) at rather lofty levels (68%). Gold futures, meanwhile, also seem poised for further deterioration in both price-action and sentiment, as both have broken key lows set in May. That said, retail sentiment is overly bullish for gold and is testing the May extreme peak, which could hint of temporary pause in the price in Gold before heading eventually lower. 

ES/NQ: Large speculator's gross shorts in E-mini S&P 500 futures continue to dwindle towards the low-end of the year, as the short-covering theme continues to buoy the bull run in price-action. Nasdaq 100 futures, on the other hand, have built the largest gross short position in over 7 years! The divergence in sentiment between ES & NQ futures sentiment has mimicked recent price-action and hints of a trading range for equity markets.

TY/US: US 30-year futures speculators have been caught fighting the latest (bearish) shift in treasury markets. While price-action has fallen 1.69% (in the period into 7/3),  gross short positions by non-commercial traders were reduced by 14K. Commercial traders, however, didn't offset the non-commercial reduction, but rather reduced their gross shorts by 8K. This explains that so-called "smart money" is on the short side and that next week's CFTC IMM report should show a sizeable reduction in in gross longs. Meanwhile, US 10-year futures speculators have correctly played the bearish shift in price-actions, by re-upping gross short positions as 10's sold-off by nearly 1% in the same period.

(Full report )7.9.17









      

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - July 2, 2017

 Retail FX Fights Q2-End Reflationary Move; Nasdaq 100 Bulls Least Optimistic Since Trump Election

Large speculators (non-commercials) in Japanese yen futures and Canadian dollar futures made the most significant moves in the FX market, according to the latest CFTC IMM report through last Tuesday (June 27th).  Quarter-end squaring and comments by central bank's Draghi & Carney highlighted a reflationary trade that triggered a sell-off in global bond markets.  The Japanese yen had a huge jump in gross (speculative) shorts and euro bulls re-emerged to highlight last week's blip and continued ascendacy into (net) long territory. Retail FX traders, however, decisively fought strength versus the greenback and weakness in gold, attemping to pick bottoms in both going into the end of the 1st half and 2nd quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, both price-action and sentiment for Crude oil have seemingly bottomed-out, sparking the Loonie to continue its recent short-covering move. Both, the latest reversal n price-action and sentiment in the (US) 30-year futures suggests a potential shift, while speculators in Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) continued to show less optimism, highlighting the lowest gross & net long position since the Trump election.

charts

Weekly Futures & FX Positioning Report - August 20, 2017

According to the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report (as of August 15th), the most significant move in the FX futures positioning w...