Greenback's Gains Fizzle After Reaching 2-Month highs

The US dollar spiked to fresh multi-month highs vs the euro, only to give back most of the days gains into the close. A dovish fed official in the afternoon session was to blame after it was suggested that the fed skip a month to raise short-term interest rates. US 10-year futures rallied for the 3rd straight day as a result, but now face stiff resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average and the key 114 region. Stocks, meanwhile, fell again as E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) dipped back below 4200 to finish near the 10-day MA. NQ futures confirmed Tuesday's bearish candlestick to potentially shift momentum towards the 14200 region, where a key Fibonacci retracement lies.

Oil Tanks! Key Levels To Watch

Oil futures plunged back below 70 as traders returned from the holiday weekend. After taking out the psychological 70 threshold, bears managed to test the 69.15/35 zone, where the mid-May low and the key 50% retracement lie. Additional weakness would expose the 61.8% retracement just under 68. With an agreement in principal, the debt ceiling drama looks to be be in the rearview mirror. It seems traders have fully priced-in the beneficial news as stocks traded off their pre-market highs and finished slightly lower on the day. ES futures were able to reach new highs, but failed to maintain those gains. This is welcoming price-action for ES bears who loaded up on short positions last week according to the CFTC. And, interest rates and the US dollar continued to pare back recent strength for the 2nd day in a row.

Stocks Fly On Debt Ceiling Hopes

Stocks soared higher as investors fully price in a positive resolution regarding the US debt ceiling. NQ futures led the way, rallying almost 3%. Although, NQ futures continue to breakout to new highs, Friday's price-action depicts a potential (buying) exhaustion at a daily and weekly level. For this to happen, stocks would have to be uniformely dissappointed to stat the new week. Also, if the ES futures price fails to produce a similar breakout it would invalidate Nasdaq 100's recent strength. Its still too early to call given how close ES futures are to the year-to-date high. As for the dollar and interest rates, both of them have been on a tear and each stabilized recent strength amid overstretched daily studies.

The Dollar And Interest Rates Surge Again…Overdone???

Interest rates and thd US dollar surged once again, but some short-technical inicators hint of a potential pause in momentum. Gold futures for example, look to be extending within a 5-wave decline and despite Thursdsay's solid decline, daily RSI is showing potential bullish divergence. That said, gold will have to a need a recovery of some kind on Friday to confirm the potential end of aggressive weakness in the yellow metal. The EUR/USD is in a similar position and the pound just today registered oversold for the first time in months. Meanwhile, interest rates have soared which has triggered an extreme (oversold) reading in US 10-year futures.

Nvidia Earnings Beat Launches NQ Futures After Close

Nvidia's blow-out earnings report after the market closed triggered a huge thrust higher in NQ futures. ES futures benefitted as well, highlighting 50-day MA support once again. The bullish move not only stabilizes weakness seen over the past few session, but could redirect both indices back toward recent 2023 highs. The interest rate complex saw bond yields gyrate higher as 10-year futures look to test the 113 threshold, where a key 61.8% retracement lies. Meanwhile, crude oil futures extended recent gains to near key resistance at 76. And, the US dollar enjoyed another strong day of gains, pushing gold futures, the euro and pound lower once again.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Mark A Key Reversal Day

Nasdaq 100 futures marked a key outside reversal (down) day after hitting a new 2023 high overnight. This is NQ's 2nd time in the past week to reach fresh highs in thinner volume during overnight trade. More importantly, it also highlights how crowded technology shares have become on the back of the recent "AI" craze. Further unwinding of overbought conditions could delay upside in NQ futures for the 10-day moving average ahead of the 20-day moving average. Broad based weakness in stocks puts the upside breakout for ES futures on holdand potentially shifting the immediate focus back towards the 50-day MA once again. Interest rates paused their latest impressive ascent higher as stocks continued to fall throughout the day as debt ceiling talks continue to dominate attention. As a result, US 10-year futures pulled back slightly as oversold conditions unwound a bit. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to grind higher, but failed to curtail commodities as gold and Crude oil crept higher, the latter highlighting a higher low to reopen the 76 region, where a key 61.8% retracement and the 100-day MA lie.

US 10-Year Futures Target Fibonacci Retracement Next

Interest rates crept higher to start the new week amid ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. US 10-year futures failed to reclaim the 114 region which previously served as support a month ago, suggesting momentum for higher yields is still clearly in place. As a result, 2-year and 10-year yields have both exceeded their key 50% retracements, which highlights a key obstacle that has been cleared. Stocks, meanwhile were mixed as technology shares continue to outperform, which has NQ futures poised to test the 14k threshold sometime soon. E-mini S&P 500 futures managed to maintain Friday's lows, which if held could create a short-covering rush to the exits given the record short position large speculators as seen in the latest CFTC imm report.

Stocks Pare Back Some As Optimism Wanes

Stocks pared back some gains after Thursday's tremendous bullish outside day thrust higher. The dark cloud cover pattern that developed Friday, however, highlights an overbought condition that is being unwound with RSI reacting at extreme levels. Unfortunately, this could hint of a failed attempt on the 4200 region by E-mini futures (ES) bulls. That said, a higher low is likely to set-up for ES/NQ futures by mid-week as debt ceiling talks loom in the nation's capial. One concern that may play a role is rising interest rates. US 10-year futures rejected at the 100-day MA in the morning then the 200-day MA later before closing at a 2-month low. The US dollar, meanwhile, paired back recent gains as well, which propelled the euro, pound and gold each from oversold conditions. While market sentiment continues to gradually improve, Friday's price-action is a reminder that ES bears have not given up quite yet. In fact, according to the latest CFTC IMM report, S&P 500 future traders have accumulated the largest (net) short position on record!

Stocks Soar Again!

A late push in stock markets enabled the S&P 500 to reach a fresh year-to-date high, eclipsing the February high into the close. This comes as no surprise after the Nasdaq 100 had broken-out earlier in the week and continued today reaching another 52-week high. Optimism was felt in interest rate markets as well as debt ceiling talks point to a possible near-term resolution. As a result, US 10-year futures are pressuring key levels of support in the form of key moving averages and the April low. In currency markets, the US dollar soared against the majors, which enabled the dollar/yen rate to a fresh year-to-date high. Dollar strength shook gold bulls, triggering gold commodity futures to fresh 6-week lows amid renewed risk appetite seen in the US banking shares and hopes of an agreement regarding Washington's debt ceiling talks.

Solid Day For Stocks

It was another solid day for Nasdaq 100 futures after reaching another 2023 high. The Dow and the S&P 500 both shot up to put recent high back in focus. The USD started off strong but faded towards the end of the North American session. Oil gained again to hint of a key higher low, which if confirmed would shift momentum towards 75. Meanwhile, Gold futures tested 1980, where a key 38.2% retracement lies, but will now need to reclaim 2000 to avoid a deper dip. And, interest rates crept higher as US 10-year futures rejected at the 50-day MA.

Gold Back Below 2000

Gold Futures broke down today as 20-day MA support finally gave way to a move back below the key 2K threshold. Stocks were mixed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the most, dropping roughly 1%. Nasdaq 100 futures continue to eeck out new highs while the S&P 500 remains mired within a tight sideways range despite bouncing off Thursday's low at the close. Meanwhile, the US dollar clawed back after giving back some of Friday's big gains. And, Interest rates continued to tick higher as US 10-year futures extended through key 20-day MA support

Greenback Gives Back Some Gains

ES Futures Speculators Add To Extremely Bearish Position!

ES futures speculators added to an already extreme net short position as of last Tuesday which may explain why the E-mini S&P 500 futures price has lagged behind the NQ (Nasdaq 100). The retail trader, meanwhile, (whose also been net short) has been scaling back their net bearish position which highlights Wednesday's and Friday's low as a critical juncture. If 4112 (ES last week's critical support) is broken it could hint of a new phase of retail traders fighting momentum. The S&P 500 index would then break below the 4100 region and immediately open 4050 (April/May lows)

Dollar Domination!

Sterling Pounded To Key Support

Nasdaq 100 Reaches New High

Euro Breaks 20-Day MA To Re-focus 1.0940 Key Support

Risk-On Mood To Start The New Week

Regional Banks Bounce Shifting Focus to Recent Highs Again!

ES Futures Test The 50-Day MA For 1st Time In A Month

Volatility Continues To Spike As Stocks Sell-Off Into The Close

Crude Collapse Highlights Risk-off Ahead Of FOMC

ES/NQ Futures Hesitate Near Highs, Where To BUY!!!